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The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey showed a slight rise in consumers’ short-term inflation expectations and expected income and spending growth. Respondents also became more pessimistic about economic growth and unemployment, while home-price expectations rose and expected mortgage rates were unchanged.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that euro area consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year rose slightly in September, while their outlook for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The monthly survey also found higher expected income and spending growth, rising home-price expectations and no change in expected mortgage rates.
Median inflation perceived over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% in September, from 3.5% in August, following the August survey findings. Median expectations for inflation over the coming year increased to 3.1% from 3.0%, compared with the July survey results. Longer-term expectations were unchanged: 2.9% for three years ahead and 2.5% for five years ahead, in line with the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Consumers expected nominal income to grow by 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%; perceived spending growth over the previous year increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are survey expectations and perceptions, not measures of future outcomes.
The expected economic growth rate over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in a year rose to 11.3% from 11.0%, while respondents put the current rate at 10.6%. Expected home-price growth increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July. The ECB also reported that net responses indicating tighter credit access increased both for conditions over the past year and expectations for the coming year.
Households See Cost and Job Pressures
The combination of slightly higher short-term inflation expectations and a weaker growth outlook offers policymakers and readers a snapshot of how households perceive economic conditions. Expectations can affect decisions about spending, saving and borrowing, but the survey does not establish that those decisions will change or predict what inflation and growth will actually be.
The figures also show differences across income groups. Respondents in the lowest income quintile reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile. They also expected a higher unemployment rate and higher mortgage rates, while their home-price growth expectations were greater. Such gaps matter because changes in prices, credit availability and job prospects may be experienced differently across households.
The reported increase in net responses expecting tighter credit adds another signal about household access to borrowing. The ECB did not provide a specific percentage-point figure for that change in the release, so its size cannot be quantified from the published summary.
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A Monthly Survey of Euro Area Households
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB uses its results for policy analysis alongside other sources of economic data.
The September survey’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The ECB says the published results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. Unless otherwise stated, the release’s statistics refer to a 2% winsorised mean; the inflation figures highlighted in the release are described as medians.
““Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly.””
— European Central Bank
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Survey Expectations Are Not Forecasts
The results record what respondents expected or perceived during the survey period; they do not confirm future inflation, employment, growth, home prices or borrowing costs. The release does not explain what caused each monthly change, and it does not give a specific magnitude for the reported shift toward tighter credit conditions.
The ECB said short-term inflation expectation uncertainty remained higher than before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, but the release did not quantify that uncertainty or detail how much it changed. The figures also aggregate responses across participating countries, so they do not show in this summary how expectations differed country by country. The ECB’s published microdata and country-level results can provide further detail.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of its October 2026 survey results for 27 November. Those results will show whether the September shifts in inflation, growth, unemployment, housing and credit expectations continued, reversed or remained broadly stable. Readers seeking more detail on September can consult the country-level aggregates and underlying microdata linked through the ECB’s survey pages and Data Portal.
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Key Questions
What changed in consumers’ inflation expectations in September?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
Did respondents expect the economy to grow?
The expected economic growth rate over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. This is a survey measure of expectations, not a confirmed economic outcome.
What did consumers expect for unemployment and mortgage rates?
Respondents expected an unemployment rate of 11.3% in 12 months, up from 11.0% in August. Expected mortgage rates a year ahead remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July.
When will the ECB publish the next survey results?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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